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Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Recreational and Medical Cannabis Industry Interplay

 
 
It has been observed that most US states that legalize cannabis, first choose to legalize cannabis for medical use before legalizing cannabis for adult recreational use. The demand from persons suffering from serious ailments like cancer, epilepsy, autism and severe pain, and their caregivers, for access to cannabis pushes their physicians to prescribe cannabis. The pressure on the medical system to provide medication that works, eventually results in physicians and medical bodies recommending to governments to legalize medical cannabis. Considering the number of potential patients, regulatory and revenue factors, public support as well as political mileage, politicians then choose to legalize medical cannabis. A medical committee is set up that recommends medical conditions for which cannabis can be prescribed. Growers and dispensaries are identified, licenses are issued, etc till the medical cannabis industry formally kicks off and grows in size over time.

Medical cannabis is only available to the select few who hold medical cards, have the blessings of their physicians, can afford the cost of cannabis or have medical insurance coverage. The vast majority, in the mean time, continue to rely on the black market for recreational and medical cannabis. As further  awareness of the medical cannabis industry and the health benefits that its patients are availing increases among the public, more and more people opt for cannabis as medication. Support for cannabis grows to such levels among the public that governments can then no longer ignore the demand for adult recreational use legalization.

Adult recreational use legalization means that anyone above the age of 18 or 21 can walk into a retail store and buy their cannabis or grow their own. With this option available, more people have access to cannabis without the restrictions of procuring medical cards and prescriptions from physicians. Only a few persons then choose to enroll for medical cannabis, most preferring to buy from the recreational market. It has been found that where adult recreational cannabis is legalized, with the greater availability and ease of access of cannabis through the recreational market, the medical cannabis industry eventually gets overshadowed by the recreational market. Many dispensaries apply for recreational use retail licenses and convert to the retail model from the dispensary model. Often dispensary owners get first preference for retail licenses. 
 
You could say that the cannabis market reaches maturity with full adult recreational use legalization. This is the point at which cannabis is made truly accessible to the public, especially with the provision for home growing for personal use. The medical cannabis step is a way for conservative society to get its head around the fact that cannabis is beneficial. Once this is proven, then more people are receptive to recreational use. They see that all the people consuming medical cannabis are not running around insane, raping women and murdering wealthy old men for their money. In fact, they realize that it is the women and the old men who are consuming cannabis the most. The popularity that arises from recreational cannabis use over medical cannabis has seen the medical cannabis industry turning into one of the opponents of recreational cannabis, such as in places like New York, where fears of the medical cannabis industry losing out to the recreational market was one of the factors delaying recreational use legalization.

Thus the phrase 'recreation is medicine' is proven. Hopefully with the model having now been tested in multiple places, new places going in for cannabis legalization will go in straight for adult recreational use legalization so that access to the plant is not delayed any longer for the billions world wide who need it urgently, instead of reinventing the wheel each time and going through the long drawn process of medical use legalization and then recreational use legalization. Lawmakers, in general, seem to be reluctant to take any sort of step towards any kind of cannabis legalization. When pushed to do so by the public, they appear to try and stall things by bringing in a long drawn process of legalizing medical cannabis before eventually succumbing to the pressure of the public and bringing in cannabis legalization for recreational use. Earlier this journey from medical cannabis to recreational cannabis legalization took many years. But with more and more US states now legalizing cannabis for recreational use, the time taken has grown shorter and shorter. This fast tracking of legalization was evident in  South Dakota where both medical and recreational cannabis was legalized simultaneously through voter ballots. Unfortunately, the local government there then rescinded on the popular vote for adult use legalization and overturned it. The medical cannabis industry has a powerful presence in South Dakota, surely lining the pockets of politicians there.
 
The same situation that we are seeing at the US state level is also evident at international level. Countries reluctantly concede to medical cannabis legalization to appease the public but refuse to take the step to recreational use legalization. Countries such as Germany, Australia, Israel, Switzerland, Italy, Thailand, etc. have legalized cannabis for medical use in various degrees. But only a few countries have legalized it at the national level, namely Canada, Malta, Luxembourg and Uruguay. The US and Mexico appear to be on the cusp of legalization at the national level. This should encourage more and more nations to do so as well. In India, the land of ganja, we can see the medical cannabis industry using its clout to lobby various state governments, and the union ministry of natural medicine, AYUSH, to legalize cannabis for medical use. There is traction happening in these places. Neither government not business seems to be the least bit concerned about the poor majority in the country - the working and laboring classes, the religious mendicants and the indigenous communities - who were the main consumers of ganja in the past, to whom the herb belonged, and who need it the most as medicine, entheogen, intoxicant and as a source of income. These classes that form the majority in the country continue to suffer persecution from law enforcement and the upper classes of society for their usage of the herb.
 
At least 38 US states have legalized cannabis for medical use so far. The federal US government however continues to keep cannabis in the Schedule 1 list of banned substances saying that it has no medicinal value. The list of US states that have legalized adult recreational cannabis is available here. All these states have legalized cannabis for adult recreational use, aimed specifically at improving public health, ensuring equity reducing crime, decreasing the black market, improving law enforcement, reforming criminal justice, improving the economy, agriculture and industry, to name just a few reasons. Canada and Uruguay have also legalized recreational cannabis at the national level with the primary aim of eliminating the black market.

Related articles

Articles related to the subject are listed as below. Words in italics are the thoughts of the author at the time of reading the article.
 
 
'Abstract
This paper analyzes the historical stock returns of 10 medicinal cannabis companies for the period between 2015 and 2020, when the legalization of recreational cannabis was debated in Canada. The results of our analysis indicate that the industry was responsive to the announcements of regulatory change that led towards legalization. Furthermore, we compare the performance of cannabis companies to that of similar businesses. The results of the comparative analysis indicate that the performance of the matched pairs is largely correlated over time. Additionally, the pre-legalization performance of cannabis companies was better than their post-legalization performance. Given that cannabis companies did not outperform their matched pair, we can confirm that legalization did not have a significantly positive effect on the industry. We can also infer that, from a stock market perspective, the legalization of recreational cannabis has been unsuccessful thus far.'

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S031359262100134X

 
'Canadian spending on medical cannabis fell to a five-year low in the first half of 2021, according to new data from Statistics Canada, as recreational marijuana reached record sales and more patients arranged to grow their own plants.

Patients in Canada spent 242 million Canadian dollars ($197 million) on medical cannabis in the first half of this year, down from CA$294 million in the second half of 2020 and 23% lower than the record CA$316 million spent in the final six months of 2017, the new figures show.'

https://mjbizdaily.com/medical-cannabis-spending-in-canada-hits-5-year-low-in-first-half/


'Medical marijuana patient numbers in New Hampshire and Rhode Island have stalled recently as the recreational holdouts become surrounded by new adult-use markets.

With Connecticut having recently legalized recreational marijuana, New Hampshire and Rhode Island are now engulfed by neighboring markets that either allow or are in various stages of allowing adult-use retail sales.

And while it is illegal to transport marijuana across state lines, the close proximity of cities in the Northeast is giving patients more options that don’t require a medical card.'

https://mjbizdaily.com/medical-marijuana-patient-numbers-stall-in-new-hampshire-and-rhode-island/


'Among past-year users, the proportions of medical-only, recreational-only, and dual-purpose users were 25.55%, 43.81%, and 30.64%, respectively. The most common primary methods were combustion (42.08%) and topicals (28.65%) for medical purposes and combustion (72.07%) and ingestion (15.05%) for recreational purposes. Dual-purpose users were more likely to report combustion and vaporization but less likely to report ingestion and topicals as primary methods for medical use than medical-only users (Ps<.001) and more likely to report combustion and topicals but less likely to report ingestion as primary methods for recreational use than recreational-only users (Ps<.041). A higher proportion of dual-purpose users (82.82%) used more than one method than medical-only (40.52%) and recreational-only users (63.91%) (Ps<.001). For both medical and recreational purposes, RCL states had the lowest rate of combustion and the highest rates of ingestion and topicals reported as primary methods (Ps<.033). The rate of using more than one administration method did not differ across states (Ps>.05).'

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.15342


'While the United States has three times as many state medical marijuana markets than adult-use programs, recreational sales are expected to be roughly 30% or more above MMJ in 2020.

Legal adult-use sales in the U.S. likely will top $10 billion this year, while medical sales are expected to bring in $5.8 billion-$7.1 billion, according to estimates from the eighth edition of the Marijuana Business Factbook,'

https://mjbizdaily.com/chart-nationwide-sales-of-adult-use-cannabis-further-eclipse-those-of-medical-marijuana/


'Illinois awarded its first licenses to businesses that can sell recreational cannabis when it becomes legal in the state next year.

State regulators announced the five medical marijuana dispensaries where residents will be able to buy small amounts of recreational marijuana products starting Jan. 1.'
https://mjbizdaily.com/illinois-licenses-first-five-adult-use-marijuana-retailers/


'Colorado and Washington were the first two states in the United States to legalize the production of cannabis for non-medical use, in 2012. However, prior to legalization, those states and others, such as California, had various regimes in place that permitted or tolerated the production and sale of cannabis for medical use, which allowed people with a range of conditions that were not well-defined to gain access to cannabis. The states of Colorado and Washington, for which more long-term trend data are available, are interesting case studies for examining the public health and public safety outcomes that have emerged in the years since the production of cannabis for non-medical use was legalized.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020, https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


'In the United States, a total of 33 states, as well as the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, had approved or had in place a comprehensive programme for medical cannabis by the end of 2019. As at December 2019, 11 state-level jurisdictions in the United States, plus the District of Columbia, allowed the nonmedical use of cannabis, and most also allowed commercial production by for-profit industry. It is worth noting that all the states that have legalized the non-medical use of cannabis previously had measures in place permitting the medical use of cannabis.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020, https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


'The sale of non-medical cannabis through legal sources represents only a portion of the cannabis market, as it appears that a substantial proportion of users still rely on illegal sources to obtain cannabis (42 per cent in 2019). Moreover, cannabis prices on the illegal market have remained considerably lower (and have been declining) compared with the prices on the legal market. In the second quarter of 2019, based on 236 submissions, the average price per gram of cannabis on the legal market was Can$10.65, compared with Can$5.93 per gram on the illegal market.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020, https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


'In most provinces, the retail licensing regime is similar to that regulating the sale of liquor, and cannabis is sold through licensed retailers (private sector), provincial retail stores (public sector) and online. Many provinces have adopted a hybrid model that allows either public or private physical retail outlets together with online retail controlled by regulatory authorities, or a combination of all three. With the exception of the Nunavut territory, all the provinces and territories allow retail sales of cannabis products online. British Columbia and Yukon are the only province and territory that allow all three modes, while Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Ontario and Saskatchewan have allowed private bricks-and-mortar retail stores.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020, https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


'While most cannabis users had used more than one product, over three quarters of users purchased and consumed dried cannabis flower or leaf for smoking. Although the sale of edibles and extracts started only at the end of 2019, a substantial share of cannabis users reported using edible cannabis products (26 per cent), cannabis oil or vape pens (19 per cent), hashish (16 per cent) and solid cannabis concentrates (14 per cent) during the same year.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020, https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


'There is a considerable level of overlap between the medical and non-medical use of cannabis products in Canada, although the proportion varies by age group. In the second and third quarters of 2019, 52 per cent of cannabis users aged 65 and older reported using cannabis for medical purposes (with or without proper documentation for such use). On the other hand, nearly 60 per cent of cannabis users aged 15–24 reported the use of cannabis products for non-medical purposes, and one third of respondents in that age group reported using those products for both medical and non-medical reasons.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020, https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


'Along with the increase in prevalence, the frequency of cannabis use also increased marginally. At the beginning of 2018, some 5 per cent of the population aged 15 and older were daily users of cannabis products; by the third quarter of 2019, this proportion had increased to 6 per cent. Increases in the proportion of daily users of cannabis were observed mainly among males, young people aged 18–24 and those aged 65 and older. Daily or near-daily use of cannabis is more frequent in younger users than in older ones. Nearly 8 per cent of people aged 15–24 and 9 per cent of those aged 25–44 were daily or near-daily users of cannabis, compared with 4 per cent of people aged 45–64 and nearly 3 per cent of those aged 65 and older. Men were twice as likely as women to be daily or near-daily cannabis users. A commonly observed pattern of use is that regular and frequent users of cannabis, such as daily or near-daily users, represent a small proportion of all cannabis users, but they account for the bulk of cannabis products consumed. It is estimated that in 2018, for example, around half a million people in Canada consumed some 810 tons of cannabis, of which half (426 tons) were consumed by daily or near-daily users and another 355 tons by those who reportedly used cannabis at least once a week.' - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, World Drug Report 2020,
https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2020/field/WDR20_BOOKLET_4.pdf


Recreation is medicine...

'Massachusetts marijuana businesses are allowed to take up to 65% of their medical supply and use it for recreational sales, according to regulations passed by state lawmakers in March.'
https://mjbizdaily.com/ma-marijuana-business-to-use-medical-inventory-to-support-recreational-cannabis-sales/


Yes, recreation is preventive medicine..the increase in recreational use that looks to overshadow the medical use industry which has so far enjoyed control over the plant through the support of government is natural and inevitable and a good thing..the medical use industry should try not be greedy and corner public health for commercial purposes..there will always be people who will consume something only if the doctors say so..there are also big pharma companies on the side of the medical use industry to create products at high prices which will ultimately benefit the medical use industry as well..and of course there is the underage non-adult market which is accessible only to the medical use industry...universal public health needs to be the goal and not the economics of inter-industry competition..

'As more states continue to legalize recreational marijuana—the current tally is nine and Washington, D.C.--speculation is afoot among industry pundits that this could be the precursor to a major slowdown, if not death knell, for the medical marijuana industry, which has 30 states and D.C. allowing its use.'
https://www.forbes.com/sites/irisdorbian/2018/09/11/why-the-adult-cannabis-market-could-kill-its-medical-counterpart/


'Over time, as the US demonstrates, it is quite possible that the medical trade could quite easily morph into recreational sales - potentially opening up an even bigger market.

One immediate obstacle is that cannabis for recreational purposes cannot be traded across borders. Countries can only import and export medicinal cannabis under a licensing system supervised by the International Narcotics Control Board.

Farmers in countries such as Morocco and Jamaica may have a reputation for producing cannabis, but they can't access markets that domestic producers sometimes struggle to supply - as happened in Canada following legalisation.'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-46374191



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